日度归档：2020年3月10日

2030-3-10 English Reading.

Title： U.S. Added 273,000 Jobs Last Month, But Economists Brace For Coronavirus Impact

source：https://www.krcc.org/post/us-added-273000-jobs-last-month-economists-brace-coronavirus-impact

Fear of the coronavirus doesn’t appear to have infected the U.S. job market yet, despite sending shivers through Wall Street.
despite 尽管
shiver 颤抖

A new report from the Labor Department says employers added 273,000 jobs in February — the same as in January. The February increase was about 100,000 more than private analysts had forecast. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, matching a 50-year low.
employers 雇主
private analysts 私人分析师

Job gains for December and January were revised up by a total of 85,000.

The evident resilience in the jobs report may be an artifact of timing. The report is based on surveys conducted three weeks ago, before the sharp jump in reports of coronavirus cases outside of China, where the outbreak began.
这个显然的弹性(这里可能是说从12+1月份的85000到二月份的激增)，也许是时间缘故。这份报告在两周前调查，（当时的时间）在新冠状病毒开始全球蔓延之前

“The February jobs report showed remarkably healthy labor market fundamentals prior to the coronavirus outbreak,” said Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics. “But while strong employment and steady wage gains have boosted consumers‘ immune system, the virus is all but certain to infect their willingness to spend.”
remarkably healthy       adv+adj  显然健康的
But while 但是尽管、但是虽然     表达转折
willingness to spend       消费的意愿

 

He warned that business and consumer caution about the virus is likely to weigh on job growth in the months to come.
weigh on job growth拖累工作增长

The pace of hiring in February was higher than the previous three months, in which employers added an average of 239,000 jobs. But there was little sign of the coronavirus contagion that’s triggered a widespread selloff in the stock market.
The pace of hiring   招聘的速度
little sign of the 几乎没有迹象（信号、标志）
contagion 传染 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 970 points on Thursday and was down about 500 points Friday morning. The blue chip index has fallen about 13% from its peak in early February. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq have each tumbled more than 10% from their recent highs. Futures markets point to further declines on Friday.
Futures markets 期货市场

U.S. construction companies continued to expand in February, adding 42,000 workers. Construction has gotten a boost in recent months from higher-than-usual temperatures and lower-than-usual interest rates. The rate on an average, 30-year mortgage fell to an all-time low this week: 3.29%.
construction companies 建筑公司
fell to an all-time low 降低到历史最低

The hospitality business has been growing rapidly, adding tens of thousands of jobs in recent months, and that trend continued in February with 51,000 new jobs. That growth could slow, however, as fear about the spreading coronavirus discourages travel and tourism.

The retail, transportation and warehouse industries showed modest job declines in February.
modest 适当的 谦逊的

Manufacturers, who are especially sensitive to global shocks like coronavirus, added 15,000 jobs in February after cutting a revised 20,000 jobs the month before.

A survey of manufacturers released earlier this week showed factory activity expanded in February, albeit slowly. Many of the survey respondents said the coronavirus outbreak is playing havoc with their suppliers in China.
suppliers in China.中国的供应商

Analysts warn that a shortage of parts from that country is likely to get worse before it gets better. While Chinese factories that were shuttered by the outbreak have begun to reopen, most are not operating anywhere close to capacity.

“Some of the delays caused by this [will] only materialize as that works its way through the supply chain,” said Shawn DuBravac, chief economist for IPC, an association of electronics manufacturers. “It could be April and May when we actually see some of that delay materialize.”

Governments added 45,000 workers in February. About 7,000 of those were temporary census employees, but the largest share were state educators.

The share of American adults who are working or looking for work was unchanged last month.
这里share 是比例的意思

Average wages have increased 3% over the past year, a slight deceleration from the previous month.

 

美赛终于结束了

今年美赛分为两个批次，wk1,、2，第一周放出了A、D、E三个题，我们选择的是wk2，哎。

早上五点多就醒了，看到发题了赶紧打卡看题。初看B题，心里就否定了大半，B题有很多关于流体力学的内容，如何设计沙雕的形状和含水量，使得沙雕在海潮的冲击下坚持的时间最久，我已经三年没有碰过物理了。C题还是一个数据问题，分析电商购买评论打分数据，为卖家谋取最大利益，这种题类型还算中规中矩，我也比较熟悉，但是里面通篇几个问题都涉及到分析评论的语义，需要一些NLP知识，而我们三个人没有一个学过NLP的，所以C题也很快排除掉了。
剩下的F题是一个非常广泛的问题，我们需要先预测气候难民的数目和文化丧失的风险，然后设计政策，分析政策，这题太发散了，令我感觉就是：没有建模的门槛，建模的程度下限低，上限高。如果做得好，能设计出非常棒的模型，但是不会建模的话，也不太影响做题。

第一天的一上午我们三个分别看了三个题，研究C题思路，队友分别研究B、F。选题的过程非常艰难，我们本来打算12点之前选好题，然而12点过去了，我们还没有确定。

中午的时候我和一个队友大概的意向是F题，另一个队友的大概意向是B题。B题算是中规中矩的题，只要把核心的物理模型搭建出来，整个论文就稳在一个水平线上了，但问题就在于我们都3年没学过物理了。我考虑了一下，下午又花了大半的时间去研究流体力学、边坡稳定性这些物理问题，然而基础太过薄弱，费劲脑汁研究了一下午都没有研究出来，已经下午五点了。另外一个一直想选择B题的队友也没有弄通核心物理方法。我们很无奈，只能选择下限低上限高的F题来做了。

晚上又看了看F题，感觉已经凉凉了。我们花了一整天的时间来选题，而F题又是胡扯题，我们还是不太擅长胡扯的，当时大家都有点泄气，第二天也没有什么战斗意志，我感觉大家似乎都已经放弃了。
其实也是因为不在一起做题的原因，大家都被困在家里，很容易受到家里的各种干扰，而且不能很好的交流，有种一个人做题的感觉，这很容易让人产生放弃感。

第二天我们没做题，大概是都已经战略性放弃这次坑爹的赛题了。晚上十点的时候，队友在群里说再坚持一下吧，胡编乱遭交上去一个论文就行了。

于是我们最后两天就开始了胡编乱造的过程

首先是预测难民数目，难民的数目没有明确的统计，没法用传统的方法来预测，看到有人说时间序列，其实不靠谱，难民数目和海平面上升趋势以及人口都有很大的关系，仅仅用时间序列根据目前的难民数目来预测实在是不靠谱。不过我也没想到什么好的思路，我在网上找了一些数据，胡乱预测了一下，大概思路是这样的：先预测出未来海平面的上升趋势、未来人口增长趋势，然后根据人口地理分布算出低海平面人口，根据2000年到现在海平面已经上涨的高度带来的影响评估未来海平面上涨的影响。
后面就开始胡扯了，队友有AHP何信息论分析的文化丧失的风险和不同政策可能造成的信息loss，这里的信息可以看成文化。然后我们胡扯了点政策，论述了一下我们政策的好坏，最后我画了图拍了版就交上去了。

虽然这次很失败，但好歹我觉得，我画的图还是很好看的。比国赛的时候的图好看多了，这也算是一个进吧。虽然我们第一天一整天都在选题，第二天没做题但是这次比赛感觉倒还是比较轻松的。没有太大压力，可能是因为语文建模的缘故吧，我以前每次建模都要写代码最少200行，国赛的时候甚至最后交的代码都有三十多页，每次工作量都很大，反而这次我倒是只写了很少的代码，大部分的时间都在做图和排版、写文稿。
这次的图画的相较于国赛真的是有质的提升。

充分意识到自己很菜，还要继续努力学习。